Your 12 Point Guide to the German Elections

1. Chancellor Merkel looks set to win a fourth term.

2. Protest parties may do better than expected, but they will not impact policies.

3. Opinion polls are not perfect. The race for the number three slot is open.

4. The AfD may mop up quite some protest votes, but the party will not exert serious influence.

5. Merkel has two, possibly three coalition options: “Jamaica” with FDP and Greens (45% probability), “grand” coalition with SPD (35%) and FDP only (15%).

6. The SPD is torn between two strategies: support Merkel or recover in opposition.

7. An FDP presence in government would not jeopardise European reforms.

8. There is a two-thirds chance that finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble stays –in his post But if not, Germany’s positions on Europe would not change much.

9. German politics works by consensus. The mainstream parties are close on many issues. The need to get many laws through the Bundesrat promotes consensus.

10. With regard to European policy: expect a European Monetary Fund and more money for common projects, but Berlin and Paris will keep a de facto veto on many issues.

11. Domestic policies changes will remain modest after the German election.

12. Forming the new government will probably take until just before Christmas.